Raw model cost per 1M tokens — everything else derives from these.
| Parameter | Type | Value | Unit | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model name | given | Displayed in pricing table notes | ||
| Input token price | given | $ / 1M tokens | — — standard prompt & context | |
| Cached input token price | given | $ / 1M tokens | Prompt caching — reused system prompts & templates | |
| Output token price | given | $ / 1M tokens | — — generated response | |
| Revenue markup multiplier | assumption | × | Applied to raw API cost to set customer price | |
| Implied gross margin | — | % | Formula: 1 − (1 ÷ markup) | |
1 credit = creditUnit tokens (reference unit for billing). creditRaw is derived automatically — it adjusts whenever token prices change so the avg Neo session always costs the target number of credits.
| Parameter | Type | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Credit unit size | assumption | tokens | Reference token count per credit |
| Target credit multiplier | assumption | Stable ratio — creditRaw derives from this | |
| Credit raw cost | derived | — | = avgSessionCost ÷ neoTargetCredits — auto-updates with prices |
| Credit at markup | — | creditRaw × markup | |
| Token Type | Type | Tokens | Cost (raw) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresh input | observed | — | |
| Cached input | observed | — | |
| Output | observed | — | |
| Avg session cost (raw) | — | ||
| Session price at market | — | ||
Input tokens account for ~86% of session cost. Cached tokens reduce cost significantly — variance in fresh input is the primary cost driver.
| Token type | Type | Min | Std dev (σ) | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Input tokens | observed | |||
| Cached input | observed | |||
| Output tokens | observed |
Min / Max bound the Minimum and Maximum planning scenarios. Std dev (σ) drives the Conservative (+1σ) scenario for all three token types.
Price = credits × creditMrk × (1 − discount). Set credits and discount — price derives automatically and tracks token price changes.
| Tier | Type | Credits / mo | Discount % | Price / mo | Margin @ 100% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micro | assumption | — | |||
| Seed | assumption | — | |||
| Mid | assumption | — | |||
| Established | assumption | — |
Overage rate = creditMrk (—/cr) — always above any tier’s implicit credit price, preserving upgrade incentive.
All ARR estimates use tier prices as the revenue unit — they update automatically when token prices or discounts change.
| Parameter | Type | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base fund count | assumption | funds | Mid-scenario addressable early-stage VC funds |
| Optimistic fund count | assumption | funds | High-scenario fund count |
| Parameter | Type | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base fund count | assumption | funds | Global late-stage / multi-stage VC funds — base scenario |
| Optimistic fund count | assumption | funds | Broader global count — optimistic scenario |
| Base ARR (Established tier) | — | lBase × Established price × 12 | |
| Optimistic ARR (Established tier) | — | lOptimistic × Established price × 12 | |
Late-stage funds mapped to Established tier — larger teams, higher deal volume.
| Parameter | Type | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative angel count | assumption | US early-adopter active angels | |
| Base angel count | assumption | ACA active angel estimate (US) | |
| Optimistic angel count | assumption | Broader active angel universe (US) |
Angels are assumed to land on the Micro tier — solo investors with lower session volumes.
| Parameter | Type | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative count | assumption | units | Global active corporate VC units |
| Optimistic count | assumption | units | Broader global count |
| Conservative ARR (Mid tier) | — | cvcConservative × Mid price × 12 | |
| Optimistic ARR (Established tier) | — | cvcOptimistic × Established price × 12 | |
Corporate VC mapped to Mid tier (conservative) and Established tier (optimistic) — strategic deal mandates drive moderate-to-high session volume.
| Parameter | Type | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative count | assumption | programs | Active programs — AngelBacked / Golden database counts |
| Optimistic count | assumption | programs | Pitchbook upper bound — includes inactive / historical programs |
| Conservative ARR (Seed tier) | — | accConservative × Seed price × 12 | |
| Optimistic ARR (Mid tier) | — | accOptimistic × Mid price × 12 | |
Accelerators mapped to Seed tier (conservative) and Mid tier (optimistic) — lower budget than established VC funds but moderate session volume for cohort evaluation.
| Segment | Type | Conservative | Optimistic | Base ARR (Mid) | Opt. ARR (Estab.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PE / growth | assumption | — | — | ||
| Family offices | assumption | — | — | ||
| Investment banking | assumption | — | — | ||
| Corporate development | assumption | — | — | ||
| Sovereign wealth funds high confidence · high ARPU potential | assumption | — | — | ||
| Event-driven / activist HFs medium confidence · 186 confirmed activists is hard floor | assumption | — | — | ||
| Search funds high confidence · low WTP, likely Micro tier only | assumption | — | — | ||
| Growth equity medium-low confidence · overlaps late-stage VC segment | assumption | — | — | ||
| Total excluded ARR | — | — | |||
Base uses Mid tier as ARPU. Optimistic uses Established tier. Not included in the primary VC TAM above.